I’m gonna start by saying that I am totally outraged the Bernie Madoff gets to go straight to jail without a long tedious exposure at trial, and I think it stinks to high heaven.
And I’ve had a real difficulty understanding why auditor after auditor found nothing awry at Madoff, when a 7th grader would have got it. And why the SEC refused to look into it, when presented with the hard evidence on multiple occaisions.
One can imagine that it could have been human fallibility; simple incompetence… Or even maybe a series of unfortunate coincidences… Occurring repeatedly, spanning more than a decade… Like a coin toss landing not on heads or tails – but on it’s edge… Ten times in a row…
But my mind rejects that as a possibility. My mind – simple and lacking grace – is a trader’s mind. Probabilities, odds, game theory, percentages – are what bubble up in my head. I’m no genius, wish I were. All the same this simple mind understands that it is unlikely to see a coin land on it’s edge. Let alone four, five times in a row. Unlikelier still 8 times in a row. Experience and Natural Law informs that when one witnesses results like those, the game is likely rigged, the results are likely corrupt.
But what possible reason could there be for corruption to occur and then to continue and to actually expand in the Madoff case? Conspiracy theories are great entertainment, but we cannot rely up anything until it becomes 8 1/2 by 11…
And so I posit for your reading entertainment, an 8 1/2 by 11 potential clue to the mess. This “Clue” is in all probability noise, not signal – but then again, it is probably as likely as flipping an edge ten times in a row. Probably a lot more likely…
I recently saw an ad for the position of “Investment Associate” for the FINRA’s (estimated) $1.5 billion warchest. What was not readily apparent to me, but was pointed out by my associate is that the ad contained a job description; the investment methodology expected to be employed.
The Investment methodology would employ a significant allocation in “Alternative Investment Vehicles”. The percentage of the desired allocation in “Alternative Investments” was substantial, at 45%…
“The Investment Associate provides support for investment related work in private and marketable alternative investments for FINRA’s endowment portfolio. Alternative investments are targeted to be 45% of total endowment assets. The Investment Associate will work closely with the Director of Alternative Investments as it relates to private equity and real assets and the Director of Marketable Alternative Investments as it relates to certain marketable alternative investments (hedge funds). ”
In fact, a review of the public record does indeed show a very significant investment by the FINRA in hedge funds… But it does not go so far as to say which …
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Simply put: Could it have been Madoff?
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And if so, if the NASD had put a large number of eggs in the Madoff Basket – could that have influenced the regulatory oversight?
Could the NASD, potentially skewered and hamstrung by Madoff – have not been physically able to extract the necessary funds to make a pay-out of more than $35,000 to members as part of the merger?
Was the FINRA’s alleged fraudulent misrepresentation that the $35,000 was “non-negotiable”, and the claim that the amount was allegedly “determined by the IRS as the Maximum Amount Possible” predicated by and based on the “reality” that they really did only have enough cash to do $35,000 – because they were up to their eyeballs in Madoff’s fraud?
And if the FINRA was indeed a Madoff Victim, wouldn’t they have been in a conundrum… Pull out funds and they would be front running the public. Bust the scam and they might lose that money forever… As well as have some serious egg on their faces. Whoa!
Okay, this is purest speculation; salacious entertainment value for feeble minds like my own.
But dear reader, my simple mind has a simple question: Where do YOU put the odds?